Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, WTI crude oil

EUR/USD holds 1.21 before German IFO business sentiment data. WTI petroleum struggling as covid cases rise in India & Japan.
EUR/USD holds 1.21 before German IFO sentiment data

EUR/USD trades slightly higher at the star of the new week, rallying to its highest level in 2 months.

An improving outlook for the bloc amid an accelerating vaccine programme helps to lift demand. News that the Eurozone will welcome US tourists is underpinning the currency.

The US Dollar drops to its lowest level since March as US stocks futures edge higher around record highs whilst US treasury yield still edge lower.

Looking ahead German IFO business sentiment data and US durables numbers are going to be focused .

Where next for EUR/USD?

Last week the EUR/USD broke above 1.20 for the primary time since March. The pair closed above the 20 & 50 EMA on the daily chart. The 20 EMA is crossing above the 50 EMA during a bullish signal.

The RSI is additionally supportive of further gains whilst it remains out of overbought territory.

Immediate resistance at 1.2112 the March high, is being tested. This level must be surpassed so as to focus on 1.2243 the February high.

On the flip side, 1.20 the round number offers strong support, before 1.1950 the 20 & 50 EMA inherit play. an opportunity through this level could negate the present uptrend and see the sellers target 1.1830 low March 8. The oil demand outlook weakened as covid cases still surge in Japan and India.

Cases in India, the world’s third largest oil importer topped 16.9 million. Meanwhile Japan announced a state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka and two other prefectures on Sunday during a bid to stem the spread of covid before the Olympics.

Wednesday’s OPEC meeting is under the spotlight as traders await clues over supply.

Where next for oil prices?

Oil trades struggling rupture of the ascending channel on the hourly chart which had shown WTI’s short term recovery.

WTI has fallen below its 50 & 100 HMA and therefore the RSI is in bearish territory suggesting that there might be further losses.

Immediate resistance are often seen at 61.35 today’s low. an opportunity through here could see bears target 60.60 last week’s low.

Any recovery would wish to push over the lower band of the ascending channel at 60.65 before attacking the 50 & 100 HMA’s between 60.80-90. Beyond here the bulls could gain more traction looking towards 62.00 and 62.75.